It doesn’t matter what I believe. It only matters what I can prove!
— LT Daniel Kaffee
Say Anything …
Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.
— John Adams
Say Anything …
… prior to 1660 only five persons out of over 33,000 had genuine middle names.
— Kent P. Bailey & Ransom B. True [1]
[1] Kent P. Bailey and Ransom B. True, A Guide to Seventeenth-Century Virginia Court Handwriting, Second Reprint 2015 (Richmond, Virginia: Virginia Genealogical Society, The Association for the Preservation of Virginia Antiquities) p29.
Say Anything …
If an unsourced, private tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, serious genealogists cheer.
— Serious genealogist
Say Anything …
Doveryai, no proveryai.
— Russian proverb
Say Anything …
Is the genealogist insisting on sourced facts the whacker or the mole in Whac-a-Mole?
— kms
Say Anything …
By a curious quirk of human nature, rather than Mother Nature, every American family of the surname Washington is related to George, all Adamses are of the family of John Quincy, and all Jeffersons are cousins of Thomas—at least as far as family traditions are concerned.
— Elizabeth Shown Mills, C.G., F.A.S.G.
Say Anything …
If you don’t have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?
— Coach John Wooden
Twenty-Fourth Census of the United States
Beginning today, households across the United States will receive U.S. Census Bureau mail detailing how to respond to the 2020 Census—the 24th Census of the United States.
To mark this important occasion, we jump back to 15 Apr 1910—the beginning of the 13th Census of the United States. Our Stanley Wetherbee served as the enumerator for Fairmount Township (pop. 320), Fairmount Village (pop. 387), and LaMars Township (pop. 287), Richland County, North Dakota.
In 1910, enumerators were hired through the civil service system after a prolonged disagreement between Congress (favoring patronage positions) and President Theodore Roosevelt (favoring civil service positions).
Stanley visited households in Fairmount Township from 18 Apr to 25 Apr, Fairmount Village from 26 Apr to 3 May, and LaMars Township from 4 May to 7 May. He may have taken 24 Apr off. So he enumerated 994 persons over 19 days, about 52 persons per day.
Stanley appears to have made one mistake though. He seems to have forgotten to visit his own family. In 1910, Stanley was likely still living with his parents Homer and Florence Wetherbee, and his four younger brothers. We have looked high and low, far and wide—there is no Homer Wetherbee family in the 1910 US Census. So North Dakota’s population was not 577,056, but instead 577,063.
Under the 72-year rule, the National Archives and Records Administration will release the original 2020 US Census returns to the public in 2092. Until then, only statistical reports that do not identify individuals will be released. Genealogists will have to wait.
Stanley George Wetherbee (1890–1971) is 2nd great-uncle of MKS in the Wetherbee branch.
Facts and Events—Levels of Confidence
As our genealogy skills have developed, particularly over the last year, we are more often documenting our level of confidence in the facts and events we add to our family tree, or discuss in our posts here or in other documents we author.
There are many terms we could use to express our level of confidence, and many schemes to rank these terms relative to each other. No point in reinventing the wheel, though.
After purchasing a copy of Elizabeth Shown Mills’ Evidence Explained [1], we chose to adopt the hierarchy of terms presented there in Section 1.6 Levels of Confidence.
Certainly: The author has no reasonable doubt about the assertion, based upon sound research and good evidence.
Probably: The author feels the assertion is more likely than not, based upon sound research and good evidence.
Likely: The author feels some evidence supports the assertion, but the assertion is far from proved.
Possibly: The author feels the odds weight at least slightly in favor of the assertion.
Apparently: The author has formed an impression or presumption, typically based upon common experience, but has not tested the matter.
Perhaps: The author suggests that an idea is plausible, although it remains to be tested.
Being more mathematically and visually inclined, here is how we tend to apply these terms in our own use.
We usually keep possibly and apparently to ourselves until we have done a little more research.
When we estimate an individual’s birth year, based on a parent’s, spouse’s, or child’s birth year, we indicate this with, for example, “Estimate based on her mother’s Birth.”
We assume the mother is 3 years younger than the father, and the mother is 22, 31, and 40 years old at the birth of their first, middle, and last child. These average ages were found in a reference that we unfortunately failed to record at the time. The reference though was for 1600–1900 America when the economy was largely agriculture-based.
And, if we copy something from someone else’s tree to preserve it until we have time to look at it, we now attach a source entitled “(copied from the internet; no source provided)”—copy these at your own risk!
References:
[1] Elizabeth Shown Mills, Evidence Explained, Citing History Sources from Artifacts to Cyberspace, Third Edition, Revised (Baltimore, Maryland: Genealogical Publishing Company, 2017), 19-20.